QDiabetes is a computer-based calculator used across the U.K. National Health Service for estimating 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes. In this study, researchers used routinely collected data from more than 1400 general practices in England to derive and validate an updated risk calculator, QDiabetes-2018, in 11.5 million adults who were free of diabetes at baseline.
Three models were analyzed. In Model A, risk factors included those already considered in QDiabetes (i.e., age, ethnicity, material deprivation, body-mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and corticosteroid use) and several new risk factors: atypical antipsychotic use, statin use, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disabilities, gestational diabetes, and polycystic ovary syndrome.
Notably, Model A did not incorporate blood tests. In Model B, fasting blood glucose level was added to the factors in Model A; in Model C, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level was added, instead of fasting glucose. Model B performed best for predicting 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes.