Nicola Sturgeon wants a de-facto referendum - but what do polls say?

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The thought of treating Westminster elections arsenic votes connected Scotland’s spot successful the Union is, of course, not a caller one. It was the old-school electoral strategy of the SNP earlier Alex Salmond persuaded members to alteration the party’s argumentation successful 2000 – precisely due to the fact that the gradualist helping of the enactment understood that it frightened peculiar voters off.

Since 2014, Scottish authorities has settled into a caller normal, successful which the SNP’s pro-independence basal is overmuch larger than successful the decades earlier the 2014 referendum. It therefore seems to marque a definite magnitude of sense, considering a 2nd referendum being taken disconnected the table, for the SNP to instrumentality to their pre-Scottish Parliament electoral strategy.

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But does the SNP’s modern strength, and the historically precocious level of enactment for independence, marque this strategy immoderate safer than it was successful the past?

The astir caller nationalist sentiment polling surely seems to suggest not.

What the polls say

In October, Savanta ComRes recovered that conscionable 32% of Scots thought it was "the close thing" to dainty a UK General Election arsenic a de-facto referendum on Scottish independence. Some 55% said it was "the incorrect happening to do".

More problematically, the SNP did not person the backing of galore pro-independence and past SNP voters. ComRes recovered that 25% of those who would ballot Yes successful an independency referendum, and 25% of those who voted SNP successful the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, deliberation that treating the adjacent UK General Election arsenic a de-facto referendum is the incorrect happening to do. Nearly two-thirds of Yessers and 59% of SNP voters thought it was right.

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Moreover, 10% of SNP voters said they would beryllium little apt to ballot for the SNP if they combat the adjacent predetermination arsenic a de-facto referendum. Given the request to interruption 50% of the fashionable ballot adjacent to statesman to marque the lawsuit that an predetermination grants an independency mandate, immoderate leakage of votes could beryllium disastrous.

On existent polling, the SNP – adjacent with the votes of different pro-independence parties, similar the Scottish Greens and Alba – would apt autumn short. Even if they don't, whether a pro-independence bulk of votes is perceived arsenic a mandate for independency is successful doubt.

October polling by YouGov recovered that conscionable 30% of Scots would enactment an independency declaration without a referendum if determination is simply a pro-independence bulk of the votes astatine the Scottish election. This roseate marginally to 32% if the bulk was SNP-only. In some cases, 55% were opposed.

There is nary crushed to deliberation these figures would alteration if we were to inquire astir a UK General Election specifically.

The de-facto referendum may correspond the SNP’s past rotation of the die, but if it is, it looks similar 1 the nationalist opposes.